What’s Going On?
According to Professor Virgilio Viana, one of Brazil’s leading experts on the environment, forestry, and sustainable development, the Amazon rainforest is now at a tipping point. If it dies back, the consequences will be catastrophic globally. With rainfall patterns and temperatures increasing as a result of climate change, the likelihood of forest fires has grown tremendously and is likely to worsen. We have to invest heavily in combating forest fires, and this has to include an approach that is centered on communities and people who are the guardians of the rainforest. FAST, the Foundation for Amazon Sustainability, is focusing on this approach as a strategic priority.
The Threat of a Dieback
Scientists warn that once deforestation exceeds 20%-25%, the Amazon will experience a dieback, where it can no longer sustain itself. This will lead to widespread desertification and, within decades, the loss of the rainforest ecosystem. If the Amazon collapses, the loss of its water cycle will trigger devastating consequences for the region and planet. The rainforest’s ability to release vast amounts of water vapor regulates temperatures and drives global rainfall patterns. But without this crucial water cycle, temperatures will rise significantly, leading to rapid desertification across the region.
At the same time, the Amazon’s transformation from a carbon sink to a carbon source will further intensify global warming. Scientists estimate that the combined impact of lost water cycles and lost carbon storage will drive an additional 2.0–2.5°C rise in temperatures, pushing ecosystems and humanity toward catastrophic instability.
The Consequences of a Dieback
The consequences of a dieback in the Amazon rainforest will be massive. Food production will collapse, cities from Bogota to Sao Paulo will experience freshwater crises, and electricity grids will collapse because dams will be empty, which is already happening in Ecuador. In Southern Africa, a record drought affecting 70 million people is directly related to the drought in the Amazon. It is likely that the recent heavy rains in the Sahel and Sahara have been at least partly caused by the collapse of the biotic pump over the Amazon.
Drought in the Amazon Basin
In 2023, the Amazon Basin experienced one of its most severe droughts in over a century, significantly impacting the region's ecosystems, communities, and climate.
A study by the World Weather Attribution group found that human-induced climate change made the 2023 drought 30 times more likely, primarily due to reduced rainfall and increased temperatures. The El Niño phenomenon, characterized by the warming of Pacific Ocean waters, further decreased rainfall in the Amazon, exacerbating drought conditions.
A fisherman walks across the dry bed of a branch of the Amazon River near Tefé, in Brazil. Photograph by Lalo de Almeida.
Amazon Rainforest Data
Urgent Global Action is Required
The Amazon is at a critical tipping point. Humanity must wake up to the full extent of this existential tragedy and take action at the scale necessary to avert catastrophe. We have limited time to stop the dieback but there is still time to act.
Protecting the rainforest means halting deforestation, restoring degraded areas, and supporting sustainable practices that preserve its ecosystems.
Governments, businesses, and individuals must work together urgently to prioritize conservation and enforce policies that prevent further destruction. Every effort counts—because saving the Amazon is not just about protecting a forest; it’s about securing a livable future for the planet and for generations to come.
We must act now to safeguard the Amazon and secure its future. Our strategy focuses on three key pillars:
Indigenous Leadership and Legal Personhood for the Amazon: Indigenous peoples and local communities, who have protected the Amazon for generations, must lead efforts to regenerate, protect, and sustainably manage the forest. To support this, we will establish the Amazon as a legal entity with rights to exist and regenerate. This framework empowers Indigenous and other forest communities and environmental organizations to act as its stewards and creates a legal mechanism to channel investments for reversing damage and financially reward them for their mobilization. Organizations like ACTO can play the leading role in organizing this across the Amazon region.
Global Financing for Restoration and Protection: Securing $2 billion per month over the next two years will enable large-scale restoration and protection projects, eventually tapering to $1 billion per month for long-term sustainability. This financial strategy combines public funds, green bonds, and carbon-sequestration-based investments, incentivizing private sector involvement to ensure the resources needed for the Amazon’s recovery.
Digital and Financial Infrastructure for Ecosystem Services: Implementing blockchain-based smart contracts will ensure transparency, automate payments for ecosystem services, and enable real-time progress tracking. This system will provide direct payments to local communities and forest guardians for their vital roles. Enhanced by satellite-based monitoring, fire brigades, and control posts at critical access points, this infrastructure will prevent deforestation and empower local communities to manage and protect their territories.
This integrated approach is essential for restoring the Amazon and addressing the urgent challenges of climate change.
To effectively restore and protect the Amazon, a comprehensive action plan is essential, targeting multiple areas of intervention that integrate environmental stewardship, community empowerment, and technological advancements. Learn more about the ambitious work Cooling the Climate is doing on the Pilot Project page of this website.
‘’We live on a live planet that can respond to the changes we make, either by canceling the changes or by canceling us.”
— James E. Lovelock, The Revenge of Gaia